Can Spring Weather Save Traffic?

This winter was cold. And the restaurant industry felt it.

According to weather.com, 2025 had the coldest January in 37 years.

And although February wasn’t breaking any longtime records, it was 0.6 degrees colder than the 40-year average.

And a whopping 6 degrees colder than last year (February 2024 was unseasonably warm.

Traffic Growth and Temperature

Although many factors contribute to restaurant performance (unfortunately many of them are pointing in the negative direction) weather is undeniably on that list.

Generally speaking, guests are more likely to eat out when it’s warmer than normal and stay home when it’s cooler.

Looking at temperature data from National Centers for Environmental Information and Black Box Intelligence restaurant financial data, we see some strong correlations.

The Impacts of weather on the Restaurant Industry’s Traffic Growth

This correlation was especially felt this winter. February recorded a terrible -5.7% year over year traffic loss.

And January’s numbers were relatively good (-1.3%) most likely because it had an incredibly easy lap due to bad weather the year prior (January 2024’s same-store traffic was a very soft -7.0%).

Weather By Segment

However, not all segments experience this temperature influence equally.

Although all segments see some correlation to higher monthly temperatures, the influence tends to be stronger as you move down the price spectrum.

For instance, Quick Service restaurants had a significant 0.7 correlation while Fine Dining had a weak 0.2.

Although it is always worth noting that correlation does not equal causation, this passes the common sense test too. Someone is more likely to go out of the house on a warm, sunny day and grab a taco or burger as they go about their activities, than having weather be the major deciding factor on whether they want to splurge and celebrate a special occasion with a classy steak dinner.

Spring 2025

So far, the Weather Affects on the Restaurant Traffic in Q1 of 2025 continues the trend.

The first week in March was the first warmer week compared to the previous five and the industry performed relatively well (+1.4% YoY same-store sales growth, -2.5% change in same-store traffic). The following week saw a dip in both temperature and industry growth.

Fortunately, weather.com predicts an “overall warm spring and early summer.”  With any luck this will mean more people going out to restaurants.