Contextualizing Hurricane Milton’s Impact
Just as people began recovering from Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida, on Oct. 9, as a Category 3 storm.
This followed ongoing efforts to rebound from a difficult economic climate for restaurants.
As many are struggling with the physical and mental tolls of two hurricanes, so are businesses.
So, it’s no surprise that the restaurant industry is also feeling the ripple effects of these disasters.
The Latest Data
For restaurants in Florida, where Hurricane Milton hit hardest: the impact on same-store sales was stark.
For the week ending October 13 (the week that reflects the impact of hurricane Milton), Black Box Intelligence estimated the impact on Florida’s restaurant same-store sales growth was -17%.
These numbers come as another indication of how easily the industry is impacted.
Impact of Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton By Region
| State | Average Pre Hurricanes | Week Ending 09/09/24 | Difference in Expected Sales Week Ending 9/29 | Week Ending 10/06/24 | Difference in Expected Sales Week Ending 10/06 | Week Ending 10/13/24 | Difference in Expected Sales Week Ending 10/13 | Week Ending 10/20/24 | Difference in Expected Sales Week Ending 10/20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 0.9% | -3.6% | -4.5% | -0.9% | -1.8% | -16.2% | -17.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% |
| Georgia | 1.7% | -8.1% | -9.8% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| North Carolina | 2.3% | -2.8% | -5.0% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| South Carolina | 2.7% | -5.6% | -8.2% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| Tennessee | -0.6% | -3.1% | -2.5% | -1.7% | -1.0% | -0.6% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% |
| Virginia | 1.0% | -1.8% | -2.8% | -1.5% | -2.5% | 0.3% | -0.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
How We Calculated Projected Impact
Here is our complete breakdown of those numbers compared to the US and previous weeks (all percentage figures are Year-on-Year comparisons over the same period in 2023):
| State | Week Ending 09/01/24 | Week Ending 09/08/24 | Week Ending 09/15/24 | Week Ending 09/22/24 | Week Ending 09/29/24 | Week Ending 10/06/24 | Week Ending 10/13/24 | Week Ending 10/20/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 3.80% | -0.49% | -0.17% | 0.43% | -3.56% | -0.87% | -16.17% | 5.80% |
| Georgia | 1.95% | 1.74% | 1.80% | 1.37% | -8.12% | 1.83% | 3.87% | 3.40% |
| North Carolina | 1.92% | 2.38% | 2.47% | 2.23% | 2.77% | 2.72% | 3.31% | 2.48% |
| South Carolina | 3.03% | 2.71% | 2.79% | 2.07% | -5.57% | 8.50% | 3.10% | 3.62% |
| Tennessee | -0.56% | -0.43% | -0.80% | -0.69% | -3.08% | -1.66% | -0.62% | 1.10% |
| Virginia | 1.14% | 0.29% | 0.02% | 2.58% | -1.78% | -1.49% | 0.32% | 1.47% |
Nationally, restaurant brands felt the impact of Hurricane Milton. It contributed to an estimated 2% decrease in overall U.S. sales growth for that same week.
| State | Week Ending 09/01/24 | Week Ending 09/08/24 | Week Ending 09/15/24 | Week Ending 09/22/24 | Week Ending 09/29/24 | Week Ending 10/06/24 | Week Ending 10/13/24 | Week Ending 10/20/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 0.98% | 0.57% | 0.36% | 0.75% | -0.91% | -0.23% | -1.62% | 1.74% |
| USA excluding affected States | 0.67% | 0.60% | 0.28% | 0.66% | 0.10% | -0.40% | -0.52% | 1.24% |
Our data surrounding Hurricane Helene clearly indicated that Georgia and South Carolina saw the biggest drops in comp sales growth at -9.9% and -8.2% respectively.
However, when we take a look at the impact of Hurricane Milton, Florida faced the most notable decline with -17.1% in comp sales growth.
Interestingly, although Florida saw a big hit, data indicated small positive gains in North Carolina and Georgia.
This indicated a swift effort to recover.
Impact of Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton By Segment
| State | Week Ending 09/01/24 | Week Ending 09/08/24 | Week Ending 09/15/24 | Week Ending 09/22/24 | Average previous 4 weeks | Week Ending 09/29/24 | Week Ending 10/06/24 | Week Ending 10/13/24 | Drop in Expected Sales Week Ending 10/13/24 | Week Ending 10/20/24 | Drop in Expected Sales Week Ending 10/20/24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casual Dining | 1.5% | -0.4% | -0.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | -0.9% | -1.3% | -3.3% | -3.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Quick Service | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | -1.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | -1.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Upscale Casual | 3.6% | -0.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | -0.1% | -1.3% | -2.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Fine Dining | 3.3% | -2.1% | -0.5% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 3.4% | -4.4% | -4.4% | -5.3% | -1.4% | -2.4% |
| Fast Casual | 0.1% | -0.3% | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.1% | -0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Family Dining | 0.8% | 1.7% | -1.0% | -0.0 | 0.4% | -1.9% | -1.6% | -3.1% | -3.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% |
As restaurants continue to navigate these challenges, adjusting operational strategies to accommodate unpredictable consumer demand is crucial.
This data underlines the need for robust plans to maintain resilience in the face of natural events that disrupt typical economic activity.
Even now, despite the impacts of the hurricanes, recent data supports the hypothesis that the industry is on an upswing and recovery may have come earlier than expected.
Conclusion
In times like these, the data can only tell us so much about those affected and our thoughts go out to those impacted.
Faced with the recovery in impacted areas and challenges seen earlier in the year, our eyes are on the industry as a whole as it attempts to improve.
For a deeper dive into the State of the Restaurant Industry Q4 2024, including the impact of the hurricanes, watch our latest webinar.