2024 Presidential Election Impacts

Since November 5th, every news outlet has been pouring over data points of the 2024 US Presidential Election.

Not to be outdone by the New York Times, Fox News, and BBCs of the world, Black Box Intelligence decided to do its own hard-hitting election reporting.

Using our own Financial Intelligence dataset, we uncovered an election scoop not yet reported by any journalist…

Restaurants in states that voted for Trump had better same-store sales and traffic growth than those that voted for Harris.

Admittedly, this is not as important as understanding the election’s implications for the future economic or geopolitical standing of the country.

Nevertheless, restauranteurs deserve election coverage too.

So, we decided to dig a little deeper.

Red States Celebrate with a Meal Out

Between November 4th and November 10th, states that voted for Trump had 1.5 percentage points higher year-over-year and same-store sales growth.

Additionally, those same states saw a 1.4 percentage points  stronger than states that voted for Harris.

To offset the possibility that Trump could have just won states already trending positive, we compared the results to their average growth rates over the past 16 weeks.

And we found an even stronger relationship with this method.

States that voted for Trump had 1.6 percentage points higher traffic growth relative to the previous 16 weeks.

For sales growth, it was 2.1 percentage points higher.

Additionally, we found a correlation between the percentage of voters for Trump by state and their relative sales growth.

Other Election Years

Of course, it is essential to remember that correlation is not causation.

And this outperformance in relative sales and traffic might just be a coincidence.

However, it is worth noting that we saw a similar relationship during the same week of the previous two election years.

In 2020, states that voted for Biden outperformed their previous 16-week average by 0.5% in traffic.

Additionally, they saw 0.4% in sales more than states that voted for Trump.

Thus, there is a strong correlation between the percentage of Biden voters by state and their relative sales and traffic growth.

In 2016, states that voted for Trump and Clinton were even on relative sales growth.

However, states that voted for Trump had 0.6 percentage points higher traffic relative to their previous 16-week average.

Furthermore, there is a strong correlation between the percentage of voters choosing Trump by state and their relative traffic growth.

What It All Actually Means

To be clear, Black Box Intelligence does not claim that the voters of the winning candidate are going on euphoric celebratory binges.

Likewise, voters of the losing candidate are going on self-pitying hunger strikes.

What the data does suggest is that voters of the winning candidate during the immediate aftermath of the election are more likely to feel a sense of optimism about the future.

Therefore, they are more likely to go out and eat at a restaurant.

How these states perform in the coming weeks is much more likely to be affected by actual economic conditions and less about any nebulous feeling about a politician.

Conclusion

Elections don’t just shape politics—they also influence how people dine out.

These insights show how consumers’ emotions can drive restaurant traffic and sales.

But it’s also important to note that, long-term, trends depend on larger patterns and shifts in customer behavior.

As the 2024 election is cemented into history, one thing is clear: restaurants reflect the nation’s mood, one meal at a time.