Out of the Box: Monthly Restaurant Industry Update
Restaurant Industry in Review: Trends from January 2025
JANUARY: BY THE NUMBERS
January 2025 Posts Biggest Restaurant Sales Growth Numbers in Last 18 Months
January 2025 – given prevailing trends throughout 2024 and before that – provides as much cause for optimism for the restaurant industry as we’ve seen in the past couple of year.
This is in the face of headwinds – literal in many cases – driven by the winter storm sweeping across the country, which meant January 2025 marked the coldest start to the year since 2011.
Yet still, same-store sales continued to trend upward.
Let’s break down the key callouts we at BBI saw in the January 2025 Restaurant Trends.
| Month | Feb. ’24 | Mar. ’24 | Apr. ’24 | May ’24 | Jun. ’24 | Jul. ’24 | Aug. ’24 | Sept. ’24 | Oct. ’24 | Nov. ’24 | Dec. ’24 | Jan. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp. Sales | -0.6% | +0.1% | +0.6% | +0.4% | -0.1% | -2.3% | -0.4% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +2.8% | -0.3% | +2.5% |
| Comp. Traffic | -2.3% | -2.2% | -2.3% | -3.1% | -2.8% | -4.6% | -3.6% | -2.7% | -2.5% | +0.9% | -3.2% | -1.3% |
Same-Store Sales and Traffic: The Growth Story Continues
January 2025 posted the strongest sales growth in the last 18 months.
Same-store sales growth reached 2.5% and same-store traffic growth is -1.3%.
All this despite some obvious external factors, which we’d typically expect to drive numbers down..
For example, limited service segments, which have been constantly overperforming the rest of the industry, experienced weak results during the month.
Meanwhile, the worst performing segment in January was Fast Casual. (he only one with small, negative same-store sales growth), followed by Family Dining and Quick Service.
Simultaneously, the best performing segments were Fine Dining, Casual Dining, and Upscale Casual.
The regions with the best traffic growth results during January were…
- New England
- Midwest
Both of these were posting strong positive traffic growth.
The regions with harsher weather saw worse traffic growth results. This included…
- Mountain Plains
- The Southeast (which experienced record-breaking low temperatures)
- California (with its biggest market suffering from catastrophic wildfires in January)
Conclusion: What’s Next for the Restaurant Industry?
Overall, January of 2025 provides solid reason for optimism.
But we should note that the early data from February suggests a potential pullback in consumer spending, with.consumer sentiment eroding for the second straight month. We’ll explore that more in February’s Out of the Box analysis.