Red State Restaurants Feast on Post-Election Boom: Why Trump-Voting States saw Sales Growth

Black Box Intelligence, the restaurant industry’s premier source for performance benchmarking and guest insights, has uncovered a unique pattern tied to the 2024 presidential election: restaurants in states that voted for Trump experienced stronger same-store sales and traffic growth compared to those that voted for Harris during the week of the election.

Between November 4th and November 10th, states that cast their votes for Trump reported  same-store traffic growth that was 1.5 percentage points higher year-over-year and same-store sales growth 1.4 percentage points  stronger  than their counterparts in states that Harris won. Adjusting for previous trends, the results were even more pronounced—Trump-voting states saw 1.6 percentage points higher traffic growth and a 2.1percentage points higher sales growth compared to their previous 16-week average.

Victor Fernandez, Chief Insights Officer  at Black Box Intelligence, commented:

“The data underscores a fascinating relationship between elections and restaurant performance. This trend is not unique to 2024. We observed similar correlations during the immediate aftermath of the 2020 and 2016 elections, suggesting a potential connection between post-election optimism and dining behaviors.”

“Elections don’t just shape politics—they may also influence how people dine out in the immediate aftermath. These insights show how consumers’ emotions can drive restaurant traffic and sales. But it’s also important to note that, long-term, trends depend on larger patterns and shifts in customer behavior.”

About the Research

The analysis, part of Black Box Intelligence’s Financial Intelligence dataset, looked at performance trends during the past two election years:

• In 2020, states voting for Biden outperformed Trump-voting states by   a restaurant same-store traffic that was 0.5 percentage points higher and same-store sales growth 0.4 percentage points stronger  sales compared to their previous 16-week averages.
• In 2016, Trump-voting states outpaced Clinton-voting states by  0.6 percentage points based on same-store  traffic growth over their 16-week averages, despite a comparable difference in  relative sales growth.

About Black Box Intelligence

Black Box Intelligence is a data and technology company serving multi-unit restaurant businesses. With a history built on drawing on financial performance and workforce intelligence from a network of 400+ restaurant brands, it now combines the best benchmarking in the industry with experience management and guest sentiment measurement technology to provide a clear and quantifiable roadmap for operational success.

For more information:

Andy Smith

CMO, Black Box Intelligence

andy.smith@blackboxintelligence.com

https://blackboxintelligence.com/