November 2024 brought a surprising wave of strong performance for the restaurant industry.

On the surface, the numbers suggest a robust recovery.

Yet, a deeper look reveals the unique factors behind this month’s results.

But – even with this need to temper any analysis – we continue to see encouraging momentum.

Let’s dive into the November 2024 Restaurant Trends, what they mean for restaurateurs, and how data can help navigate the months ahead.

Thanksgiving Calendar Impact on November’s Numbers

On the surface, restaurant performance during November was strong.

But unfortunately, there’s a good reason for that… and it doesn’t involve guests suddenly getting much stronger urges to visit more restaurants.

The Thanksgiving holiday was late during the month this year. It fell into December, according to our standardized reporting calendar.

Typically, this is when restaurants close completely or operate under reduced hours. It also means work, school, and other routines get disrupted, and families likely gather for a meal at home instead of eating out.

Same-store sales and traffic growth this November were calculated compared to November 2023. This included the holiday.

As a result, sales and traffic were lower in November of 2023.

The calendar shift artificially boosted November 2024’s numbers. Additionally, it means the holiday’s disruptive effects were excluded.

And while this comparison is important to understand, it doesn’t tell the whole story.

Positive Signs Beyond the Calendar Effect

Even without the Thanksgiving-related boost, November’s performance showed meaningful improvement.

The industry experienced declining sales YOY between June and August.

Meanwhile, November became the third in positive same-store sales growth.

November’s sales growth would not have been as strong without the Thanksgiving shift.

But, everything pointed to the month achieving positive growth even without it.

• Same-store sales growth: +2.8%.
• Same-store traffic growth: +0.9%

This was the first month with positive YOY traffic growth since February of 2023.

Early December: The Opposite Effect

The late Thanksgiving has also affected early December results, creating the inverse effect. As discussed with the calendar impact on November’s Numer, so was the case for December… but inversed.

Sales and traffic growth were weaker during the first week of December.

This was due to the same shift of Thanksgiving when comparing 2024 and 2023.

However, when combining the data for the last two weeks of November and the first two weeks of December?

The industry’s performance shows small but positive same-store sales growth. Additionally, it showed somewhat strong traffic.

This combined perspective is reassuring and highlights how the industry isn’t trending toward a downturn.

Certain segments performed well in November. Particularly those most affected by Thanksgiving disruptions in past years:

• Casual Dining
• Fast Casual
• Quick Service

These segments demonstrated resilience and capitalized on the absence of Thanksgiving-related headwinds.

For restaurateurs in these categories, it’s essential to analyze specific factors driving the growth they experience. This includes menu offerings or promotional strategies—which drove growth.

Key Takeaways for November 2024 Restaurant Trends

November’s performance highlights the importance of understanding calendar effects. Additionally, the underlying strength of the industry’s recovery. Here’s how you can turn these insights into actionable strategies:

1. Understand the Data Context:
   Avoid misinterpreting boosted sales by comparing current trends against normalized benchmarks without considering all possible underpinning explanatory factors.
2. Focus on Traffic Recovery:
   With traffic growth turning positive, brands need to be thinking about how they can capitalize. Certain strategies are really delivering at the moment based on our guest sentiment trends we are seeing – most notably value initiatives and loyalty programs, to name a few.
3. Segment-Specific Insights:
   Differences in performance across segments have been well publicised in 2024. Clearly, any analysis needs to take this into account, at least to a certain extent. At the same time, consumers are seemingly willing to spend more on going out to eat. And this is something you can look to tap into irrespective of the type of restaurant you operate.

Moving Forward: Data as Your Competitive Edge

As the industry recovers, the role of data in decision-making has never been more critical. Use tools like Black Box Intelligence to:

• Benchmark performance against industry peers.
• Analyze the impact of external factors, such as holidays, on your business.
• Develop predictive strategies to navigate future challenges.

By prioritizing data-driven insights, restaurateurs become better informed to weather temporary anomalies.

Meanwhile, insights also allow brands to capitalize on any growth opportunities that exist.