January offered little clarity in terms of the current health of the restaurant industry from a year-over-year growth perspective.

Several factors added noise to the data, contributing to results for the month that were much more negative than expected, painting a bleak and inaccurate picture of the industry.

The biggest factor was the weather. Large areas of the country experienced unusually cold weather fronts or rainfall during January, negatively impacting restaurant sales and traffic.

Data for this month showed that the expected slowdown in restaurant sales was beginning.

Meanwhile, reviews that contained a cleanliness-related mention have an ASR of 3.2 for full-service restaurants, nearly a full star below the overall rating for 2023. In the case of limited-service restaurants, the ASR of reviews that contain a reference to cleanliness is 3.3, which is almost half a star lower than all reviews for this category. Thus, making it a focus-point in early 2024.

March 2024 saw a modest sales growth and declining traffic, the key to restaurant success lies in understanding consumer behaviors amidst inflation, emphasizing the importance of value offerings and customer experience for sustained growth.

March was the weakest month for same-store sales growth in restaurants in the last three years.

As economic conditions softened through Q3 of 2024, it seemed to be the consensus from economists that lower-than-normal check growth would help prevent restaurant traffic from plummeting.

Although the US employment numbers remained robust, consumers were still insecure about the economy. If brands have no choice but to raise prices, their focus should shift to delivering other parts of the value equation.

April was the strongest month for same-store sales at that point in the year. However, sales growth remained weak compared to the 1.9% average seen in the second half of 2023.

We began seeing brands, who had no choice but to raise prices, focus shift to delivering other parts of the value equation in order to stay competitive.

Same-store sales growth was +0.4% in May, which represented a 0.2 percentage point drop in year-over-year growth relative to April.

Sales growth was less than +0.6% during each month of 2024 at this point, noting the Industry’s struggles.

And in the era of the internet and Google Reviews, Average Star Rating (ASR) became a huge factor in seeing success.

As we moved into June, it’s became increasingly clear how the declining economy at the time was impacting the restaurant industry.

With high inflation of the post-COVID years, price-sensitive consumers adjusted their internal calculation as to when and where to eat out.

June also marked a significant moment for restaurants, as same-store sales growth slipped to -0.1%, representing a 0.4 percentage point deceleration in sales growth.

July marked a low point for the industry.

The steep decline was driven by a combination of external factors, including a surge in viewership for the summer Olympics, a rise in Covid-19 cases, and unusually hot weather in the West and Northeast.

These issues led to decreased consumer traffic and spending, resulting in the worst performance the industry has seen since January.

August marked a potentially pivotal moment for the restaurant industry.

After several challenging months, signs of recovery were beginning to appear. We were also able to dive into this year’s Total Rewards Survey. This revealed a much more optimistic picture when it comes to staffing.

46% of companies said they are fully staffed in front of house hourly positions (up 41 percentage points from 2022) and 37% say they are fully staffed in back of the house positions (up 27 points from 2022).

The September 2024 data painted a relatively optimistic picture for the restaurant industry.

Despite a tough summer and setbacks caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton, recovery is on the horizon with positive momentum in both sales and traffic.

The industry was able to continue its more positive momentum with September’s 0.4% same-store sales growth. This was the best month for the industry since April’s year-over-year sales growth.

October 2024 marked a pivotal month for the restaurant industry. It showed positive same-store sales growth and improving traffic trends.

Segments that are outperformed the industry proved that Value-Driven Strategies are crucial. The standout performers in October were the fast casual and quick service segments. This is aligned with brands’ push to emphasize value and competitive price points.

The Thanksgiving holiday was late during the month this year. It fell into December, according to our standardized reporting calendar.

Typically, this is when restaurants close completely or operate under reduced hours. It also means work, school, and other routines get disrupted, and families likely gather for a meal at home instead of eating out.

The calendar shift artificially boosted November 2024’s numbers. Additionally, it means the holiday’s disruptive effects were excluded.

December’s sales and traffic data may appear weak at first glance. However, a deeper dive reveals a more interesting story.

To account for the calendar shift, it’s vital to view the last two months as a combined period for sales and traffic.

November and December combined saw a strong 1.1% in same-store sales growth.