The minimum wage effect: Assessing restaurant turnover two years after California’s $20 hike

Two years ago, California shocked the restaurant industry by implementing the largest minimum wage increase in recent history. 

This bill raised the minimum wage $4 for all California Limited Service restaurant workers to the new floor of $20 an hour.

Long Term Consequences of California’s Wage Hike 

Since the implementation of the bill, California’s non-management turnover has seen a significant decrease.  Since 2023 Q4, California’s Rolling 12-month non-management turnover has declined a whopping 36%. 

However, it is hard to definitively credit this drop with the wage hike since the national numbers decreased an equal amount in that same period. This national turnover decline was likely due to higher unemployment and anxiety about the economy, advantaging employers. 

This is not to say that wages had nothing to do with it. In Q4 2023, California was already the highest paying state in terms of Service non-management positions. It also had the lowest turnover in these positions. In Q1 of 2026, it remains the highest paying and lowest non-management turnover state. 

So, in many ways, the wage hike was just the exclamation mark on these already existing workforce trends in California. 

Additionally, although April 2024 was a big jump in terms of wages, it hasn’t increased since then. $20 became not only the minimum but the norm (and close to the ceiling). $20 has been the median Limited Service Team Member/Crew wage for 8 straight quarters in California, meanwhile the National worker has had more frequent (albeit more modest) adjustments. 

Minimum Wage Increases in 2025 

Looking more recently into the link between turnover and minimum wage increases. 2025 saw 22 states increase their minimum wage.