June 2026 Restaurant Industry Trends

There are plenty of reasons why we could be seeing a major downturn in restaurant sales and traffic. For starters, the average inflation over the last three months has been the highest during any consecutive three-month period going back to June 2023. What makes this inflationary period especially tough is the fact that much of that inflation is coming from necessities that are difficult or impossible to control. For example, gas prices were up almost 41% year over year in May, while paying for shelter, which is a sizeable component of most consumers’ budgets was up 3.4%. As a result, any gains in compensation have been erased by inflation recently, and disposable personal income adjusted for inflation is now lower than it was a year ago.

At the same time, we are seeing plenty of signs of consumer distress. Delinquency rates for credit cards and auto loans are on the rise and have hit their highest levels in fifteen years. Savings rates are down as people need to spend more of their income to keep up their current lifestyles. Perhaps most alarming, the rate at which people are withdrawing money from their 401Ks under hardship is also rising rapidly.

According to the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, 42% of consumers said in June that their household financial situation is worse than it was a year ago. The outlook for the future is not much brighter, with 34% of consumers expecting their financial situation to be worse a year from now.

“In this environment, it would be logical to believe restaurant spending would be among the first to be cut. After all, prices in restaurants continue to rise faster than prices for food at grocery stores. Yet despite all of these challenges, we continue to see steady same-store sales performance for restaurants since March. This latest downturn from a consumer perspective has helped reinforce the hypothesis that restaurant spending is much more ingrained in consumers than it used to be, and how much they are willing to protect that spending.”

Consumers may be skipping some restaurant visits and takeout orders, but the amount being spent at restaurants continues to grow. However, that doesn’t mean that everybody is winning and experiencing growth in the industry. As consumers watch their wallets more closely, they are becoming pickier, and their expectations are growing. They may be willing to trade some transactional dining occasions for more experiential ones, and spend more per occasion when doing so. Dining out, after all, remains that affordable luxury that most can enjoy at their own comfortable price point. But if there is one thing that remains true—and Black Box Intelligence’s data continues to back it up—it is that regardless of the price point, the one thing that most sets apart top performing brands from the rest is delivering a better sense of value to their guests.

Our expectation is for a reasonably stable second half of the year, with same-store traffic growth remaining negative but relatively flat, and check growth moderating somewhat as inflationary pressures subside, putting less pressure on menu price increases and facilitating the continuation of promotional discounting as a vehicle for driving value to guests. Same-store sales growth may decelerate as a result, but it will likely be a moderation and not a nosedive of the current sales trends. After all, guests have been telling us with their dollars since March that they love restaurants, even when things get tough.